Tropical Storm Gordon is forecast to move into the southeast Gulf ofMexico later today, and reach the central Gulf coast by late Tuesdayor Tuesday night. Gordon has the potential to bring significantrainfall amounts, flash flooding, and isolated tornadoes to the area,mainly across portions of inland southeast Mississippi, southwestAlabama, and the western Florida panhandle. Tropical storm force windsand coastal flooding impacts are also possible.

* WIND:

Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts

across coastal portions of southwest Alabama and lower portions of

southeast Mississippi. Potential impacts in this area include:

– Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage

to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings

experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile

homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight

objects become dangerous projectiles.

– Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater

numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several

fences and roadway signs blown over.

– Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban

or heavily wooded places.

– Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent

in areas with above ground lines.

 

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts

across the rest of inland southeast Mississippi, southwest and south

central Alabama and the northwest Florida panhandle.

 

* SURGE:

Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant

impacts across coastal Alabama and coastal portions of the western

Florida panhandle. Potential impacts in this area include:

– Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by

waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.

– Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become

weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low

spots.

– Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and

numerous rip currents.

– Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.

Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in

unprotected anchorages.

 

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama…northwest

Florida…south central Alabama…and inland southeast Mississippi.,

little to no impact is anticipated.

 

* FLOODING RAIN:

Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible

limited impacts across portions of southwest Alabama…northwest

Florida…south central Alabama…and inland southeast Mississippi..

Potential impacts include:

– Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.

– Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.

Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen

and overflow in spots.

– Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually

vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water

occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage

areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become

near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge

closures.

 

* TORNADOES:

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts

across portions of southwest Alabama…northwest Florida…south

central Alabama…and inland southeast Mississippi.. Potential

impacts include:

– The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution

of emergency plans during tropical events.

– A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power

and communications disruptions.

– Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys

toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,

large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees

knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats

pulled from moorings.

 

 

 

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward to Dauphin

Island, Alabama.

 

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl

River to the Alabama-Florida Border. This warning replaces the

Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for this area.

 

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Upper Florida Keys and from

Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including Florida Bay, has been

discontinued.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

* Shell Beach to Dauphin Island

 

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

* West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

* East of Dauphin Island to Navarre

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach

* West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to east of Morgan City,

Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

* Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line

 

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please

see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions

to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

 

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations.

 

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning areas.

 

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

———————-

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was

located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.2 North,

longitude 82.6 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near

17 mph (28 km/h) and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is

expected over the next 72 hours.  On the forecast track, the center

of Gordon will move farther away from the southwestern coast of

Florida early this evening, and move across the eastern Gulf of

Mexico tonight and Tuesday. The center of Gordon will approach the

central Gulf Coast within the warning area late Tuesday or Tuesday

night, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on

Wednesday.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.

Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and

Gordon is expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along

the central Gulf Coast.

 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)

from the center.

 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches)

based on earlier reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance

aircraft.

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

 

Shell Beach to Dauphin Island, Alabama…3 to 5 ft.

Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay…2 to 4 ft.

Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River…2 to 4 ft.

Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border…1 to

2 ft.

 

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be

accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the

relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary

greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,

please see products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office.

 

RAINFALL:  Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys, and South

Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches

are possible over the southern Florida peninsula.

 

Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6

inches over southern Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, and

southeastern and northeastern Louisiana, with isolated maximum

amounts of 8 inches through late Thursday.

 

These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding.

 

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue for the next few

hours in the warning area across southwestern Florida. Tropical

storm conditions are expected within portions of the central Gulf

Coast warning area by late Tuesday, with hurricane conditions

expected late Tuesday or Tuesday night in the hurricane warning

area.

 

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight

across the southern and west-central Florida Peninsula.