Look for attack ads next year
Published 2:47 am Wednesday, September 9, 2009
When talk turns to politics in Alabama it usually leads to the governor's race. It does not matter if the governor's race is four years away, political gossip starts early as to who will run for governor. In Alabama politics the governor's office is the brass ring. As each new race approaches it is talked about more than ever around coffee clubs and kitchen tables from Sand Mountain to the Wiregrass. It is comparable to college football being the king of all sports in Alabama.
This infatuation with the governor's office is borne out in voting history. In most states the presidential race sees the largest voter turnout, but that is not the case in Alabama where historically we have voted heavier in gubernatorial years. However the turnout has gotten closer in the last few decades ever since Alabama became a two party state. The emergence of the Republican Party in Alabama since 1964 has caused us to be more like the national norm. However, in the 40 years prior, the largest turnout in Alabama was in the Democratic primary for governor.
Alabamians have fallen into a pattern of voting Republican for our Washington politicians. It appears we prefer Republican presidents, U.S. senators, and Congressmen, while we split our allegiance when it comes to the Statehouse. However, we overwhelmingly elect Democrats to local offices such as probate judge, sheriff and the Legislature.
In recent years the middle battleground has been the governor's office, a job we have not placed a party preference on. In the last 20 years we have seen extremely close gubernatorial elections and political party musical chairs. In 1986 Guy Hunt became the first Republican governor since Reconstruction, but left office in 1992 only to be succeeded by Democrat Jim Folsom Jr. Fob James won as a Republican in a close 1994 race but lost to Democrat Don Siegelman in 1998. Siegelman lost to Republican Bob Riley in a squeaker in 2002. In the 20 year stretch prior to 1986 there was very little swapping because George Wallace was governor most of that time.
Look for a lot of negative ads and attacks next year. Why, because it works. The book on Alabama politics, according to George Wallace, is that more people will vote against someone or something than for someone or something. Wallace ran against integration for years and when that wore out he ran against the big money special interests and corporations. “Big Jim” Folsom ran against the same big mules. Sadly polling reveals that negative or attack ads are effective. Wallace and Folsom knew this instinctively before polling and used it effectively.